Thursday 30 April 2009

Swine Flu: Needless Panic

Between them the BBC and the WHO have constructed a mountain out of the molehill of “swine flu”. Both bodies, who would claim to have the interests of the public at heart, have colluded to cause worry and panic in order to heighten their profile.

The WHO’s director general’s statement of “it really is the whole of humanity that is under threat” shows a massive overreaction to this illness and an appalling attempt to grab some much needed headlines for her organisation. This is the flu. A bad strain of it, but the flu all the same. Some people have and will unfortunately die from it, much the same as every bout of winter flu in the UK. But for most people who get it they will get ill and then get better.

Deaths have been largely confined to Mexico where high quality treatment isn’t readily available. Even here death rates are broadly similar to rates seen with other yearly flu viruses. Deaths in countries with comprehensive health coverage are, to date, almost non-existent, with treatment standing a very high chance of success. This coupled with the seemingly slow spread and declining virulence of this virus suggests this shouldn’t be high on our list of worries.

However, the BBC still see the need cover this with “Armageddon headlines” while more worthy news stories fall by the wayside. Coverage of diseases such as MRSA, HIV/Aids and Diabetes that are almost guaranteed to claim more lives in the coming year than Swine Flu are judged not as news worthy.

So just like with Sars, Bird Flu and CJD experts will give worst case scenarios, the media will cover as if it is a certainty and needless panic will ensue.

Tuesday 14 April 2009

The Good, The Bad, The Ugly and The Sad End of Mr Brown

So it is over. At the end of a 14 day period, where we have seen the best and worst of Mr Brown, the house has finally fallen. We will now have a year more of polling and campaigning, but the McBride scandal will come to be seen as the moment that this Prime Minister was finished.

At the start of the month it all looked so good; Gordon was doing what he does best. His political brilliance was on show for all to see as he mixed it on the world stage. The polls responded as world leader after world leader heaped worthy praise upon their host. People were reminded that behind the Tory spin there was a leader of the highest calibre who, if he was not the Prime Minister of Britain, would most likely have been the leader of the IMF, the World Bank or some other such institution.

Top line politics doesn't however allow ones strengths to show for too long without ones weaknesses casting a shadow. So as the McBride scandal broke the attack dog, brief/counter brief machine that Brown set up to oust Blair, which he didn't dismantle when he came to power, was coming back to haunt him. And, it is important to realise here that this is Brown's machine. He can try as might to disown this incident, but this is a beast that he has built. Brown believes that if you don't agree with him you are his enemy and as an enemy you must be destroyed. This in the past has been his way of doing just that.

Even by modern political standards this was gutter-ball stuff. Inexcusable and tasteless. Any half decent PR adviser would have insisted on Brown spending 5 humiliating minutes in front of the Cameras: "I have fired McBride (not let him resign), I knew nothing of these e-mails, but the buck stops with me" and most importantly "I am very sorry". Not doing this will be his downfall. By not killing the story at its source Brown has let it run and run. The conservatives are now going to spend the next month on Question Time questioning not just the moral integrity of Brown, but Labour as a whole.

Labour MPs with a majority of less that 6000 most probably have only 12 more months on the green benches. 8000 is a dead heat. Parliamentary Candidate's who are fighting marginals should save the money and effort for a brighter day. But high calibre Candidates, with a chance of winning, should be given the donations and publicity they require to do just that. For the election is gone and Labour will need the best and the brightest to rebuild in opposition.

And, as for Brown the manner in which he leaves Number 10 will determine his legacy. 'When the fall's all that's left, it matters a great deal'.